아프리카ㆍ중동

There is a serious risk of all-out war between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. According to new CSIS analysis, both the scale and geographic scope of violence have dramatically increased. The number of violent incidents related to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict increased 4.5 times in the last week of September from the weekly average between October 7, 2023, and August 31, 2024. In addition, the attacks are targeting a much larger geographic area. Israeli and Hezbollah attacks struck an average of 27–28 km from the Blue Line in the last week of September, up from an average of about 3–4 km between October 7, 2023, and August 31, 2024. The number of strikes and the geography of the conflict are likely to grow and include a larger swath of Lebanon and Israel as well as potentially Iran, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.