중남미

This paper discusses the trajectory of inflation in Brazil after the adoption of the Inflation Targeting Regime, aiming to identify its main determinants from a post-Keynesian approach that points out the relevance of distributional conflict for inflation dynamics. A descriptive analysis of inflation behavior in Brazil is carried out, in which four distinct phases are identified: 1999–2004, 2005–2010, 2011–2015 and 2016 to mid-2022. Changes in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during these phases are explained by three main reasons: (i) imported inflation and exchange rate; (ii) administered prices; and (iii) wage inflation. Thus, it is argued that inflation in Brazil was mostly generated by cost pressures. We estimate Phillips curves that incorporate cost and demand elements in order to identify which of them exerted the greatest influence on the inflation rate as measured by the IPCA. The estimation was performed with Vector Error Correction (VEC) models from March 2013 to January 2022. A complementary model was estimated to investigate the long-term relationship between imported inflation and demand pressures on price inflation.